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Development Status and Prospect Forecast Analysis of China's Textile Industry from 2017 to 2021
Development Factor Analysis 1. Favorable Factors (I) Policy Favorable On September 28, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Textile Industry Development Plan (2016-2020). The "Plan" proposes to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of development, to promote supply-side structural reforms as the main line, and to focus on the "three products" strategy of increasing varieties, improving quality, and creating brands, to enhance industrial innovation capabilities and optimize the industry Structure, promote intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, form new development momentum, create new competitive advantages, promote the industry to move towards mid-to-high end, and initially build a textile power. "Planning" from the promotion of industrial innovation
analysis of development factors
I. Favorable Factors
(I) policy is good
On September 28, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Textile Industry Development Plan (2016-2020). The "Plan" proposes to focus on improving the quality and efficiency of development, to promote supply-side structural reforms as the main line, and to focus on the "three products" strategy of increasing varieties, improving quality, and creating brands, to enhance industrial innovation capabilities and optimize the industry Structure, promote intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, form new development momentum, create new competitive advantages, promote the industry to move towards mid-to-high end, and initially build a textile power. The "Plan" puts forward specific tasks from six aspects: enhancing industrial innovation capabilities, vigorously implementing the "three products" strategy, promoting textile intelligent manufacturing, accelerating the process of green development, promoting coordinated regional development, and enhancing the comprehensive strength of enterprises. As a special plan to guide the development of the textile industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the "Plan" will promote the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry and create new competitive advantages.
(II) the new mode of "Internet textile"
According to estimates by the Ministry of Commerce, the total amount of textile and apparel e-commerce transactions in 2016 was 4.45 trillion billion yuan, an increase of 20.27 percent over the same period last year, accounting for 20.23 percent of the country's total e-commerce transactions. Among them, the (B2B) e-commerce transaction volume between textile and garment enterprises was 3.45 trillion yuan, 21.05 percent over the same period last year. The total online retail sales of clothing and home textiles totaled 985 billion yuan, up 18.53 percent over the same period last year, accounting for 23.51 percent of the country's total online retail sales of physical goods.
The textile force composed of e-commerce B2B platforms such as Alibaba, global textile network and cloth network has become an important driving force for the transformation and upgrading of the textile and garment industry. "Internet textile" has brought the textile industry not only more convenient transaction process, but also more breakthroughs in the original regional restrictions, uniting the supply and demand of fabric and garment factories in various parts of China, thus solving the traditional problems of selling cloth and finding cloth.
(III) regional industrial structure adjustment
The implementation of the three major strategies of "Belt and Road Initiative", the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and the Yangtze River Economic Belt provides new opportunities for promoting the coordinated development of the textile region. The construction of the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt in Xinjiang and the implementation of a series of policies to support the development of the textile and garment industry in Xinjiang and promote employment will promote the development of Xinjiang's textile industry to a new level. Promoting the construction of new urbanization, especially guiding 0.1 billion people to urbanize nearby in the central and western regions, will enhance the endogenous driving force for the development of the textile industry in the central and western regions. The adjustment of the global textile division of labor system and the acceleration of the reform of the trade system will promote enterprises to make more effective use of the two markets and two kinds of resources, more actively "go out", enhance the internationalization level of the textile industry, and create a new situation for the opening and development of the textile industry.
(IV) brand building continues to advance
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the brand awareness of the whole industry has been further improved, and the industry brand cultivation management system and brand value evaluation system have been initially formed. China International Clothing and Apparel Expo, China Clothing Awards, China International Fashion Week, and various clothing festivals have been continuously held. The research and release of fiber, fabric, and home textile fashion trends, and the release of the "Textile and Apparel Industry Annual Brand Development Report" have promoted the industry Brand development. At present, there are about 3,500 clothing and home textile brands active in the domestic market, and the whole industry has more than 300 "China Famous Trademarks. A number of clothing and home textile brands have established design institutions and sales networks overseas, and Chinese designers' works have been displayed and exchanged on the international stage. Online sales of clothing and home textiles have increased by more than 40% annually, and the rapid growth of e-commerce has expanded the market influence of brand products.
2. adverse factors
(I) cost advantage no longer
In recent years, the cost of China's textile industry has risen significantly, and the cost advantage is no longer. China's textile industry is facing four high costs, the first is the cost of labor. With the demographic dividend of China's cheap labor force far away, the rise of the textile industry in Southeast Asia and other places, the foreign environment has brought severe challenges to domestic textile enterprises. In the double squeeze of "re-industrialization" in developed countries and the acceleration of industrial process in developing countries, the labor cost advantage of developing countries in Asia and Africa is obvious; the international comparative advantage of China's textile industry is weakening. Followed by: energy costs, transportation costs and environmental governance costs.
(ii) Decline in exports
In 2016, China's textile and clothing trade volume of 290.6 billion billion US dollars, down 6.1. Of this total, exports were US $267.25 billion, down 5.9 per cent from the same period last year; imports were US $23.36 billion, down 8.8 per cent from the same period last year; and the cumulative trade surplus was US $243.89 billion, down 5.6 per cent from the same period last year. The main reasons for the decline in exports in 2016 include: slow economic recovery in major export markets and weak external demand; unstable external environment and increasing uncertain factors affecting exports; rising production costs of enterprises and further weakening of traditional advantages; industrial transfer has led to the gradual reduction of the share of Chinese products in major international markets; and a significant decline in the prices of export commodities.
Overcapacity of (III) low-end products
China's textiles and clothing have always occupied the international market with low-cost exports. Although the export volume is large, the added value of the products is obviously low. At present, the effective supply of high-end products in China's textile industry is insufficient, and there is a phased and structural overcapacity in low-end products. It is expected that the supply reform of the textile industry will continue to eliminate backward production capacity, especially in the context of high labor costs, the future living space of low value-added products will be more limited.
2017-2021 China Textile Industry Sales Revenue Forecast
In 2016, the sales revenue of China's textile industry was 4,086.97 billion billion yuan, up 1.7 year on year. We expect that the sales revenue of China's textile industry will reach 4,160.5 billion yuan in 2017, and the average annual compound growth rate in the next five years (2017-2021) will be about 3.67, and the sales revenue of China's textile industry will reach 4,806.4 billion yuan in 2021.
Total Profit Forecast of China's Textile Industry, 2017-2021
In 2016, the total profit of China's textile industry was 219.41 billion billion yuan, up 1.2 percent year on year. We expect that the total profit of China's textile industry will reach 222.7 billion yuan in 2017, and the average annual compound growth rate in the next five years (2017-2021) will be about 1.92, and the total profit of China's textile industry will reach 240.3 billion yuan in 2021.
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